Another season has started and it once again looks as though League 1 will be highly competitive. Though the division has lost teams of the calibre of Leeds and Norwich there are still some big, ex-Premier League teams in the third tier who will want to push on to better things and meanwhile there are some sides for whom League 1 is the pinnacle of their footballing history, but the question remains who will go up and who will go down.
The top of the table looks to be fairly well sewn up with Southampton, Huddersfield and Sheffield Wednesday all at odds of less than 5/1 with ladbrokes. Following them Charlton, Peterborough and Brighton are the favourites to make up the rest of the top six and, in all honesty, it wouldn't be surprising to see those sides up there.
Southampton are quite rightly favourites, they very nearly made it into the play off places last season, even despite starting on -10 points and not claiming their first win until the eighth round of games. Saints have one of the best keepers in the league in Kelvin Davies, who turned down a move to Premiership West Ham to assure himself of first team football last season, the man is rightfully club captain and will earn his team many points with his individual displays throughout the season. In front of him in the centre of defence will be Radhi Jaidi, the experienced Tunisian defender who has bags of top flight experence will be a rock in an otherwise youthful defensive line up.
But it is in the midfield and forward departments that Saints are at their strongest and where else is there to start than with star striker Rickie Lambert. As a Bristol Rovers supporter I know Lambert's game very well and at League 1 level the man is nearly faultless. He's big and strong and was a key part of the way Rovers played and they are yet to replace him, though players of his quality don't come around every season. Some of the goals he scores are breathtaking, his stunning volley against MK Dons last season just one of many long range efforts he has scored in League 1 over the past three seasons. Next to Lambert you will find Lee Barnard, a former Tottenham junior who Southampton signed from Southend during the January transfer last season. While at Roots Hall he scored 35 league goals in 75 appearances over two seasons, a record that shouldn't be messed with.
Behind the front two in the midfield are Adam Lallana and Jason Puncheon, two exciting attacking midfielders who have bags of goals in them, the former in fact finished with 20 goals in all competitions last season, a staggering Frank Lampard-esque return from a midfielder. Puncheon has pace in abundance and a sweet left foot and was previously successful in League 1 with loan spells at MK Dons. The newst signing among the midfield is Guilherme do Prado, also known as 'Guly'. He scored nine goals last season in helping Cesena win promotion to Serie A, turning down the chance to be a squad player at Italy's highest level for the chance at the Saints, already stating his desire to get the club back to the top.
Expect Wednesday and Huddersfield to be close behind. The Owls were only relegated last season and have kept the core of their squad together, the only big loss being keeper Lee Grant to Burnley for a £1million fee and they have also been able to bring in players such as experienced striker Paull Heffernan and ex-Wolves full back Daniel Jones, both of whom were sat on the bench for Wednesday's first game of the season. Marcus Tudgay scored his fair share of goals in the Championship last season so expect him to prosper in League 1, another one to look out for is Giles Coke a midfielder who has just been signed from SPL side Motherwell.
Huddersfield were high scorers last season and often had large winning margins behind them but some poor defending let them down and made sure that they could only make sixth place before eventually losing out to Millwall in the play-off semi's. Jordan Rhodes and Theo Robinson are still with the club and will score hatfuls of goals while new signing Joey Gudjonsson has the talent to provide a fair few goals from midfield to boot.
My outsiders for automatic promotion? Peterborough. Like Wednesday they have come down but kept their squad together and added a couple of really talented footballers into what is an already stong starting line up. Aaron McLean, Craig Mackail-Smith and George Boyd are three exceptional attacking players and make up a strikeforce that in my opinion is second only to Southampton. Grant McCann, a very experienced close season capture from Scunthorpe, will provide bite in midfield and also offer top class dead ball delivery and with Lee Frecklington preparing to come back from injury they should be a force, play offs at the very least for the Posh.
The play off picture once again looks as if it's going to be tight this season though there may not be such quality outside of those top four clubs, certainly not as much as there was last year. In all there are four other teams that I can see nudging the play off door open and they are Charlton, Brighton, MK Dons and Swindon.
Charlton were unlucky in so many ways last season and if you took out the class of Leeds and Norwich they would surely have been one of the teams you would have put money on going straight back up. This season however there has been little growth at The Valley, Kyel Reid being the only real stand out signing the club made during the summer. But they will have a settled side, Christian Dailly is a rock at the heart of the defence while Pawel Abbot knows how to get things done in League 1. The loss of Jonjo Shelvey and Nicky Bailey are big misses though and I think that the reason they won't be challenging for automatic promotion is that the soul of last years side have moved on to better things.
The real strength that Brighton have is in their new manager, Gus Poyet, thought to be the real mastermind behind Dennis Wise at Swindon Town he is now on his own in the big old management world and, in the transfer market at least, he has already begun to shine. Poyet and assistant Mauricio Taricco have built a team from the base up, having two experienced keepers in the squad including former Leeds custodian Casper Ankergren. They have also bought well in defensive areas, the poaching of Gordon Greer from Swindon being a particular highlight for the Argentinian duo. Inigo Calderon will bring an exotic look to the back four while an aging Radostin Kishishev will add a bit of guile to the squad. Glenn Murray and exciting youngster Ashley Barnes should do a good job up front but behind those two the options are thin on the ground.
MK Dons have strong options at the top end of the pitch with Jermaine Easter and Sam Baldock in the team and the rest of the squad looks solid. After a dissapointing end to last season the Dons will want to come back strongly and they have the tools to do so. It was an agonising finish for Swindon Town last year, being beaten in the play off final by Millwall, made even harder to take by various rogue bobbles and despite the loss of hitman Billy Paynter to Leeds United, Swindon should have enough in the tank to mount a challenge to the top six, especially with battle hardened manager Danny Wilson and the talent of a certain young Mr Austin.
As a Bristol Rovers fan I would love to say the Gas are in with a shout for promotion. They have certainly signed some talented players, Will Hoskins and Wayne Brown already look a class apart but without the targetman in the squad and manager Paul Trollopes negative tactics, I just can't see them finishing higher than tenth.
The 'R' word, that which shall not be talked about, the big R or quite simply a pretty crap season. Inevitably there are teams that will unexpectedly get drawn towards the black hole of relegation but for now I'll focus on my four candidates for this seasons League 1 drop.
Firstly Russell Slades Leyton Orient. I have a lot of respect for what Russell did during his time at Yeovil, taking them to Wembley, as well as guiding Grimsby to the league 2 play off final the season before, but he really has had a bad spell of luck and will need a lot more of it to keep Orient up this season. Barry Hearn can pump in all the money he wants but unless some new players are brought in sharpish they will struggle. It's difficult to see where the goals are going to come from, Adrian Patulea had a great spell with Lincoln but that was in the division below and since moving to Orient he has scored only three times in 27 appearances. Jonothan Tehoue may add some spark to proceedings but aside from him the only other players to catch the eye is centre back Elliot Omozusi, who will really need to drag his fellow defenders up to his level.
It took Rochdale 36 seasons to get out of League 2, but will they be able to maintain that sort of record in League 1? Probably not. It's a shame for the fans that little transfer activity has been going on at Spotland, especially after Dale fell over the line at the end of last season, owing their promotion to the fantastic start they had. Chris O'Grady scored in the division below but was never able to do the same with Oldham at this level. Anthony Elding returns from a decent spell in Hungary with Ferencvaros, but that only really goes to show the state the Hungarian league is in. Expect goal scoring central defender Craig Dawson to be the key man for this season.
Last season end in farce for Hartlepool, a three point deduction for fielding the ineligible Gary Liddle earlier in the season meant that Pool went into the last game of the season with the relegation monkey on their back, eventually avoiding going down with a 0-0 draw with Brentford. And with the resignation of Chris Turner just two games into the league season it is probably going to be a struggle. Goals should be the least of the worries however as Denis Behan and James Brown can provide but it's the lack of stability that is likely to cause Hartelpool problems this term, the last thing they need is a spate of injuries.
Dagenham & Redbridge will get one honour this season, and that's the fact that most people will be rather patronising about them, the little club from east London that have had a meteoric rise through the leagues to get to the high point in their history, much like Blackpool fans will also suffer this coming year. But once the high of promotion wares off its likely to be a struggle for the Daggers this season. Little of the squad have any experience at this level, most being brought from non-league into John Still's squad and it is this that will trouble them throughout the season. Damian Scannell and Gavin Tomlin have played a few games in League 1 but that's about it. Expect them to be 'brave' and end up 'heroes' at the end of the season, no matter where they finish up.
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