No matter how many times fellow fans tell you football is unpredictable we still think we know the game better than anyone else, even The Lord himself.
And so with five games left in Bristol Rovers agonising struggle to avoid the drop down from League 1 I thought I'd take some time to have a go at the BBC predictor for the division, these are my results.
When I started I believed that Plymouth and Swindon were already down so the final two relegation places were going to be filled by two out of Rovers, Tranmere, Dagenham & Redbridge, Notts County and Walsall so those are the sides I began focusing on with the table currently looking like this.
18 Tranmere P40 Pts 46
19 Dagenham P41 Pts 44
20 Walsall P41 Pts 43
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21 Rovers P41 Pts 43
22 County P40 Pts 42
23 Swindon P41 Pts 38
Saturday April 16th
A bad weekend for everyone involved, aside from Tranmere that is. They face a key fixture with Dagenham that could either send the Birkenhead side far away from the pack or see the Daggers move one win away from the fifty point mark. As it goes I thought that Dagenham would come out on top, Saturday saw them secure a simple 3-1 win over fellow strugglers Notts County and on Tuesday they suffered a harrowing 4-3 loss to league leaders Brighton, that result securing the Seagulls promotion.
I also had Rovers down to lose 2-0 to Southampton, and that's probably being kind. Even though the Pirates had been in good form prior to their defeat to Exeter at the weekend the manner of the performances have been none to impressive and they are likely to get punished by a Saints team that threaten from anywhere on the pitch.
Table
18 Dagenham P42 Pts 47 W1-0 Tranmere
19 Tranmere P41 Pts 46 L0-1 Dagenham
20 Walsall P42 Pts 43 L3-1 Brighton
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21 Rovers P42 Pts 43 L0-2 Southampton
22 County P41 Pts 42 L0-1 Bournemouth
Tuesday April 19th
Tranmere are involved in another crunch relegation tussle, this time with Notts County. Martin Allen was recently appointed as gaffer at County, their board getting rid of Paul Ince and taking one last throw of the dice on the Mad Dog. Allen was at Barnet for under a month before taking the County hotseat, winning two and drawing one game to give a side who looked almost dead and buried at the foot of League 2 a fighting chance of staying up and I can see a nine game losing streak coming to an end for his new side, gaining a point in a 1-1 draw, taking them back above the Gas on goal difference.
18 Dagenham P42 Pts 47
19 Tranmere P41 Pts 47 D1-1 Notts County
20 Walsall P42 Pts 43
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21 County P42 Pts 43 D1-1 Tranmere
22 Rovers P42 Pts 43
Friday April 22nd and Saturday April 23rd
Dagenham and Tranmere play Friday and earn a point apiece against Plymouth and Hartlepool respectively. Walsall and County both lose, though the match between Notts and Swindon is one of the most difficult to predict and the win for the Wiltshire side gives them a fighting chance of staying up, making it one of the biggest fixtures of the relegation battle, while Rovers pick up a point that takes them out of the drop zone against Charlton
18 Dagenham P43 Pts 48 D1-1 Plymouth
19 Tranmere P43 Pts 48 D1-1 Hartlepool
20 Rovers P43 Pts 44 D2-2 Charlton
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21 County P43 Pts 43 L2-1 Swindon
22 Walsall P43 Pts 43 L1-0 Sheff Weds
Monday April 25th
Easter Monday sees Rovers pick up a 1-0 victory over an off-colour Bournemouth side, their first win at Dean Court since February 2001. Dagenham and Tranmere both lose but still look fairly safe, both needing a win in one of their last two games to secure League 1 status for another season but County and Walsall look in a bad way after both lose. Swindon must win their last two and hope Rovers fail each time to stay up.
18 Dagenham P44 Pts 48 L3-0 Huddersfield
19 Tranmere P44 Pts 48 L2-1 Exeter
20 Rovers P44 Pts 47 W1-0 Bournemouth
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21 County P44 Pts 44 D0-0 Brentford
22 Walsall P44 Pts 44 D1-1 Oldham
Saturday April 30th
The Gas are still looking over their shoulders after a 2-1 defeat at the hand of Sheffield Wednesday but know that a point against Colchester on the last day would see them stay up. Dagenham claim a hame win against Carlisle to confirm their survival and as Walsall and Notts County also lose Tranmere will definately be a League 1 club next season. Swindon pick up a win over Oldham to move above Walsall.
18 Dagenham P45 Pts 51 W1-0 Carlisle
19 Tranmere P45 Pts 48 L1-0 Leyton Orient
20 Rovers P45 Pts 47 L2-1 Sheffield Wednesday
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21 County P45 Pts 44 L1-0 MK Dons
22 Swindon P45 Pts 44 W1-0 Oldham
23 Walsall P45 Pts 44 L2-1 Charlton
Saturday May 7th
A midweek 4-2 win against Plymouth meant that Southampton had secured promotion to the Championship.
Only one of the three teams on 44 points troubles Rovers, namely Swindon Town whose upturn in fortunes came just too late, Rovers taking the point they need to survive at Colchester to send their barmy army of travelling support home happy, Swindon's joy following their win over Tranmere being shortlived. County and Walsall lose again, not that that would have troubled the gleeful Pirates.
Brighton fail to reach the 100 point mark, finishing on 98 and Bournemouth draw with Rochdale to stay in the final play-off spot.
18 Dagenham P46 Pts 51 L0-2 Peterborough
19 Tranmere P46 Pts 48 L0-1 Swindon
20 Rovers P46 Pts 48 D2-2 Colchester
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21 Swindon P46 Pts 47 W1-0 Tranmere
22 County P46 Pts 44 L0-2 Brighton
23 Walsall P46 Pts 44 L0-1 Southampton
My results will most likely finish way off as some teams will pick up unexpected results that nobody could foresee. The last few seasons have seen teams need at least 50 points to stay up so my view of Swindon ending on 47 is very low. I have also predicted just a single win for Rovers when, in the most likely circumstances, they will need to win at least two more and get a point from somewhere else.
The last day fixtures do Rovers some favours with Dagenham having to face off with Peterborough, Walsall playing Southampton and Notts County up against Brighton in their final games a visit to a Colchester team firmly rooted in a mid-table position doesn't look as bad as it could for the Gas.
Indeed, Rovers final five games aren't as daunting as they looked at the start of the season. Southampton will undoubtedly be tough to beat and a point at St Mary's would be a superb result for a side that look decidedly dodgy, but after that comes Charlton who have dropped to 12th after a poor run and Bournemouth who, as mentioned earlier, are having a dreadful time of late. Sheffield Wednesday have struggled since beating the Gas 6-2 in December and should not be feared in front of a full house for the final game of the season at the Memorial Stadium before the trip to Essex.
Notts County are the team that could cause problems. Under Paul Ince they looked shot of confidence and, falling quickly, dead certs for the drop but Martin Allen will give them one last hope, a boost that could not have come any later and fray the nerves of the teams just above them.
So the key is to not lose heart, anything is possible and this last hour or so spent typing in results and writing up this blog has most likely been wasted, but nevertheless, it's wasted some time before the Tottenham V Real Madrid match this evening, not that that will be able to compare to the last five games of Rovers season.
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